Funnel Vision #17
Space Tourism: Does it make sense?
“I look up at the night sky, and I know that, yes, we are part of this Universe, we are in this Universe, but perhaps more important than both of those facts is that the Universe is in us.”
― Neil deGrasse Tyson
What do Sir Richard Branson, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos all have in common, apart from being multi-billionaires? They all have space companies that wish to open up commercial space tourism. Recently, Sir Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos both took a trip to space through their respective companies. Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin, and Elon Musk’s SpaceX have sold commercial tourist tickets to the moon.
The burning question is - Does commercial space travel even make sense?
Why does it make sense?
As per a report by BusinessWire, the size of the Space Tourism industry in 2020 was estimated to be $ 651 Million and expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.2%, reaching a revised size of $ 1.7 Billion by 2027.
The numbers alone do not seem impressive, as the market cap of Amazon alone is more than US$ 1.6 Trillion as of August 2021. So why are these companies pushing for commercial space tourism?
These companies’ primary source of revenue has been the subset of the space-for-earth industry, which deals with space products meant to help people on Earth. In 2019 it was valued at around US$ 366 Billion and mainly included launching satellites for telecommunications, national security, earth observation and more. However, a subset of this industry has not been explored yet, the space-for-space sector, which will deal with the necessities of space. While SpaceX, Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin have grand visions of supporting large numbers of private space travelers, their current space-for-space activities have all been in response to demand from government customers (i.e., NASA). But as decreasing launch costs enable companies like SpaceX to leverage economies of scale and put more people into space, growing private sector demand (that is, tourists and settlers, rather than government employees) could turn these proof-of-concept initiatives into a sustainable, large-scale industry.
All three of these companies are trying a multifaceted approach to create a niche in the highly regulated space industry. Some of their practices include:
Reducing launch costs by developing reusable rockets, establishing a standard launch procedure
Developing dedicated launch stations and developing Spaceports for efficient, quicker and safer launches
Exploring the Sub-Orbital range for tourism and promoting space tourism to generate demand for their space-for-space services
Getting regular government contracts for the delivery to International Space Station and Satelite Launches.
Getting media and public attention by making unprecedented expeditions such as selling tickets to the moon
So, succinctly, these companies wish to expand their core market, space-for-space, by increasing their consumer base through private tourism influx.
Another more primitive school of thought suggests that whenever a new mode of transportation is developed, it is firstly used by the military and government, then for trade and finally for the general public. In the past, when Trains, Planes, and motor vehicles were invented, they were first deployed for war efforts and security. Then after they were used for general transportation aiding trade, they were finally opened for anyone to use.
Similarly, Space transportation or transport through Spaceships/Rockets has exclusively been used for military and governmental purposes. Gradually it has been liberalised, and private astronauts, consignments have been able to reach space. And now the time has come to finally open space for all.
Why it doesn’t make sense?
While all three companies are trying to bring tourism to the space, the technological capabilities are not there yet. Currently, the International Space Station and the recently launched Tiangong space station remain the only habitable places apart from Earth. However, entry to private astronauts is not available on either of them, subject to some exceptions.
The recent flights of Sir Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos were flights on a sub-orbital trajectory. They were shot across the space to a height of around 100 km, where they felt a few moments of weightlessness and landed back. Neither of the companies has a plan to create a settlement/ tourist destination in space. Elon Musk has promised a Martian Settlement, but there appears only a bleak chance of that happening shortly. A ticket on Virgin Galactic costs US$ 450,000. NASA has given a US$ 2.9 Billion contract to SpaceX for the next Lunar Launcher. For comparison, it costs US$ 47 million for ISRO to launch a GSLV rocket, which is considered to be the most cost-efficient in its class. (However, the latest GSLV mission launched on 12th August was unsuccessful)
However, it can be seen that it is not yet viable to have proper functioning space tourism as the costs and the technological barriers are highly restrictive. The rapid expansion of the space-for-space sector, which these companies are banking on, appears to be a difficult challenge that can only be overcome by rapid technological development and simultaneous reduction in costs.
What’s next?
The space Tourism industry has been a fascination of generations. Today, the industry stands at the cusps of making dreams come true. Considering the current technological advancements and the funding available to the industry, we would not be - as Bruno Mars has said, “Talking to the Moon” really soon. However, the medium-term and the long-term prospects look promising, and the dominant players are literally aiming for new horizons!
Meet the Author
This issue of Funnel Vision has been authored by Naitik Sarvaiya.
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That’s all for this week!
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